HardHitz

2026 First Round Mock Draft

With the 2026 NFL Draft less than 48 hours away, our lead NFL Draft analyst, Billy Mustafa, gives us his first (and final) 2026 NFL Mock Draft.

 

1. Las Vegas Raiders – Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

A mere formality. The Heisman Trophy-winning Mendoza will be the first selection on Thursday night, beginning a new era for the Raiders. The former Cal and Indiana passer led the Hoosiers to an undefeated National Championship, posting a 41/6 TD-INT ratio in 2025.

2. New York Jets – Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State

It appears that the No. 2 pick will come down to Arvell Reese or David Bailey. Reese is the better prospect for me and I expect him to bring versatility to the Jets defense. Do not be surprised to see Reese line up as a pass rusher as well as an off-ball linebacker in Aaron Glenn’s defense. His 96th percentile 4.46 40-yard dash brings some much-needed athleticism to that Jets defense.

3. Arizona Cardinals – Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

For a running back to go in the top-3, he has to be a special player, and Love is exactly that. A smooth and natural RB with home-run hitting ability. Shows chops as a receiver too. He really is the “Offensive Weapon” GMs like to brand early RB selections as. Love’s 4.36 40-yard dash time really shows up on tape. If he finds a crease, he can take it to the house.

4. Tennessee Titans – David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech

The best pure pass rusher in the class? Probably. There is work to be done in his ability to set the edge and play the run, but pass-rush win rates as high as Bailey’s tend to translate. His 22.4% pass rush win rate ranks in the 96th percentile, and he posted 14.5 sacks in 14 games during the 2025 season.

5. New York Giants – Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

The Giants think they’ve found their next franchise QB in Jaxson Dart. Now it’s time to give him the weapons he needs to avoid a sophomore slump. Carnell Tate is a solid route runner with good size and a knack for making big catches down the field. His 17.2 yards per catch average points to his ability as a down-the-field playmaker. Pairing Tate with Malik Nabers gives the Giants and Dart a top-5 WR duo in the league.

6. Dallas Cowboys – Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

Our first TRADE! (Dallas send Cleveland picks 12, 20, and 112 in return for picks 6, and 39). The Cowboys desperately need to fix their linebacker room and Sonny Styles does just that. He is the son of former Falcons and Rams linebacker, Lorenzo Styles. Sonny started as a safety before switching to linebacker in 2024. He’s fantastic in coverage and a reliable tackler with only two missed tackles in 2025. A superstar athlete, posting a 4.46 40-yard dash, 43.5″ vertical, and a 134″ broad jump. These are 93rd, 100th, and 99th percentiles for the position, respectively.

7. Washington Commanders – Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

The third Buckeye to come off the board in a row and the fourth in the first seven picks. Arguably the best player in the draft. A super versatile defensive back with the ability to play deep, in the box, or as a big nickel. Fantastic against both the run and pass, giving up zero TDs in his coverage throughout his time in Columbus. Downs also has two punt return TDs on his resume. Downs also has strong NFL bloodlines. His brother, Josh Downs, is a WR for the Indianapolis Colts, his father, Gary, was a RB who played for the Giants, Broncos and Falcons, and his uncle, Dre Bly, who played CB for the Rams, Lions, Broncos and Niners, and is currently a member of the Jets coaching staff.

8. New Orleans Saints – Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami

A rollercoaster of a pre-draft process for Rueben Bain. After a fantastic final season with the Hurricanes where they narrowly lost out to Indiana in the National Championship, Bain was a projected top-3 pick, but discourse around his subpar arm length and some recently reported off-field issues could see him fall a little further than expected. A high-intensity pass rusher who uses his hands well despite his arm length. Has the versatility to fit in a 4-3 or a 3-4. His 8.5 sacks in his final season as a Hurricane could make him an ideal replacement for Cam Jordan on the Saints defensive line.

9. Kansas City Chiefs – Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

The end-of-season injury to Patrick Mahomes should’ve set alarm bells ringing. You have to protect your QB and the Chiefs’ offensive line issues have gone on far too long. Fano has experience at both left and right tackle, and projects well to the interior as well. With current RT Jaylon Moore having only one more year on his current contract, RT could be the natural fit in Kansas City, although Fano’s versatility will likely appeal to Andy Reid. It may not be the sexiest pick, but it could very well be the smart one.

10. New York Giants – Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State

I’m probably a little higher on McDonald than most, but I fully trust his ability to be a plug-and-play, above-average NT with plenty of potential to develop as an interior pass rusher. With a Harbaugh now in charge, I could see a trenches pick here. Whilst McDonald doesn’t make up for losing Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals via the trade that gives the Giants this pick, his ability to be a run-stuffing nose tackle as a rookie and the potential to become a consistent pressure player from the interior with his size and get off should appeal to a Giants side with a now glaring hole at the nose tackle position. If the draft falls like this, half of the top-10 will be Buckeyes.

11. Miami Dolphins – Francis Mauigoa, OG, Miami

The Dolphins need pretty much everything, so they can truly go with best player available, and that might just be Miami Hurricanes RT, Francis Mauigoa. I project Mauigoa as a guard at the next level. A huge upgrade over incumbent RG, Jamaree Salyer, who will be a free agent after the 2026 season. Still only 20 years old, Mauigoa is one of the youngest prospects in the class and possesses one of the highest ceilings. New HC, Jeff Hafley, and GM, Jon-Eric Sullivan will want their first draft pick in charge to be a success and Mauigoa gives them a safe floor and high ceiling. This could be a 10-year starter for Miami on the interior.

12. Cleveland Browns – Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

After a trade down with the Dallas Cowboys, the Cleveland Browns finally make their first pick in the first round, selecting Arizona State WR, Jordyn Tyson. The Browns need better pass catchers if they are to truly and fairly evaluate Shedeur Sanders as the potential franchise QB from 2026 onwards. Tyson is, for me, the best route runner in the class, with a big catch radius and circus catch making ability. He posted 61 catches and 8 TDs in only 9 games in 2025, as injury once again plagued him. If the Browns are comfortable with Tyson’s health, he could be the WR1 the Browns have been searching for. Jordyn Tyson would join his brother, Jaylon Tyson, as a Cleveland athlete, if he lands with the Browns. Jaylon currently plays for the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA.

13. Los Angeles Rams – Makai Lemon, WR, USC

There are rumours circulating that the Rams are one of the teams who might agree with ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky regarding Alabama QB Ty Simpson being the #1 QB in this class, and whilst I did consider putting him here to the Rams, I ultimately decided that their want for another WR and trying to cash in with another Super Bowl appearance and victory in the few years Matthew Stafford has remaining are more important. Makai Lemon is likely a slot-dominant WR in the NFL with more than a touch of Amon-Ra St. Brown to his game. The 2025 Biletnikoff winner posted over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs in 12 games for USC on his way to winning the award, and is a good fit for a team with both of their top two WRs on expiring contracts. After a strong off-season bolstering the defensive side of the ball, the Rams turn their attention to the offense and make an already difficult to stop offense even better with this pick.

14. Baltimore Ravens – Olaivavega Ioane, IOL, Penn State

A sprint-to-the-podium selection for the Ravens if it falls like this. Current left guard, Andrew Vorhees was a 7th round selection in 2023 and is an unrestricted free agent after the 2026 season. Vega Ioane is a huge instant upgrade at a position that needs to be reset. Ioane creates movement in the run game and will help to create lanes for both Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

Pass rusher is a popular selection for the Buccaneers at 15, but cornerback is a sneaky underrated need, and they have the opportunity to take their favourite in the class here. Mansoor Delane is a physical but slight corner who succeeds in both man and zone coverage. His physicality and willingness to tackle show up on tape. He has smooth hips and shows a good understanding of route combinations. He offers versatility, but will likely stick as an outside cornerback in the NFL.

16. New York Jets – KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M

Similarly to the Kayden McDonald selection, this is perhaps a little higher than you typically see KC Concepcion coming off the board in other mock drafts. A New York native who played his college football in North Carolina and Texas, Concepcion shows the ability to win at all three levels. He creates separation with ease and consistently locates the blind spot of the defensive back covering him. Questions around his hands are abundant due to some drops, but on tape these are often a combination of poorly placed throws due to sub-par QB play and screen / quick throws in which Concepcion is trying to make a play before securing the football. If these concentration drops can be tidied up, I really like what Concepcion can be at the next level. Pairing him with Garrett Wilson gives him the opportunity to succeed as a number two option as a rookie and gives Geno Smith another viable weapon.

17. Detroit Lions – Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

A giant of a man and a perfect fit for Dan Campbell’s Lions. Standing 6’7″ and 352 lbs at just 20 years old, Kadyn Proctor is a behemoth of a man. Should be given the opportunity to fail at left tackle before any talk of a conversion to guard. He will dominate in the run game with his size, but it is a double-sided sword, as he can struggle in pass sets against speedier, bendier edge rushers. Has lined up as a fullback and even as a receiver for the Crimson Tide. Could we see similar trickery from a Detroit team who likes to get their tackles involved in the passing game?

18. Minnesota Vikings – Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

The first TE off the board, and the Vikings get out ahead of a need by selecting Kenyon Sadiq. An athletic freak of a TE, Sadiq posted a 4.39 40-yard dash, a 43.5″ vertical, and a 133″ broad jump. These are 100th, 99th, and 98th percentiles, respectively. A good route runner, even if with a limited tree. He is a mismatch weapon and can punish a defensive coordinator who covers him with a linebacker. A willing but unrefined blocker, he does enough in that regard for a move TE. Should form a nice partnership with T.J. Hockenson before taking the TE1 mantle in Minnesota for himself in 2027.

19. Carolina Panthers – Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

Back-to-back Oregon Ducks off the board as the Carolina Panthers take the second safety off the board. Thieneman is a versatile safety who I prefer in single-high alignments. His play recognition, trigger and playmaking ability all pop on tape. A good athlete who may not have the big nickel coverage ability of a Caleb Downs, but can do everything else to a high standard. Current Panthers free safety, Nick Cross, is in his age 30 season and a free agent after 2026.

20. Cleveland Browns – Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

The second of the first round picks received from the Cowboys in return for the 6th overall selection and the Browns once again bolster their offense. Left tackle is a glaring need for a revamped Browns O-Line and former Georgia Bulldog, Monroe Freeling could be the final piece to that puzzle. 6’7″ and 315 lbs at only 21 years of age, Freeling displays great length and aggression as a tackle. Inexperienced as only a single season starter for Georgia, there will be growing pains with a player this raw, but his size and athletic profile, 4.93 40-yard dash, 33.5″ vertical, and 115″ broad jump are 93rd, 91st, and 94th percentiles, respectively, and make him well worth a first round selection for a left tackle needy team.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers – Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State

One of the fastest rising players in this class, Max Iheanachor has gone from a day 2 prospect to an almost lock to be taken on Thursday night. The Nigerian-born Iheanachor is raw but his athleticism and tape give you hope for a sky-high ceiling. He needs to work on being more consistent at the nuances of the position, as he can get high and lose leverage at times. This selection gives Max Iheanachor a year to sit and learn the position before potentially taking the starting right tackle spot in 2027, allowing former first round selection, Troy Fautanu to move to left guard or potentially left tackle, if Pittsburgh decide to move on from Broderick Jones.

22. Los Angeles Chargers – Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn

One of the youngest prospects in the draft, Keldric Faulk is one of the more divisive prospects in the class. Good size at 6’6″, 276 lbs and versatility to play multiple positions across multiple fronts, and being able to mould him into the player you want him to be appeals to some, but others see Faulk as pure projection. Faulk plays the run well, but needs to improve as a pass rusher and add some moves to his arsenal. A potential Travon Walker / Greg Rousseau type player is the ceiling here. I prefer him in a 3-4 as a 4i player over a 4-3 edge and expect he’ll be used as such here. One of the bigger boom-or-bust first round prospects.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

Classic Philadelphia Eagles pick. Lane Johnson is 35 and has always seemingly struggled to stay healthy. I wouldn’t expect that to improve the closer he gets to 40 and who knows how many more years he plans to play for? Getting ahead of that upcoming need is something Philadelphia and Howie Roseman have done fantastically for years. Blake Miller is a battle tested four-year starter at RT for the Clemson Tigers with good size, athleticism, and still only 22 years old. You would like to see him play with a better anchor and technique consistency at times, but he will have the chance to learn from one of the best to ever do it in Lane Johnson if this is his landing spot.

24. Arizona Cardinals – Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

TRADE! (Arizona send Cleveland picks 34 and 65 in return for picks 24 and 107). Arizona trade up to select their new quarterback. Jacoby Brissett is currently the starter for Arizona with Gardner Minshew as his backup. These are both career backup type QBs. With reports that the Rams and Cardinals are the two teams highest on Simpson, which makes sense considering the coaching connection, you feel like Arizona might start to get nervous of the Rams making a move at the end of the first round to get him. They remove all doubt with this trade up and can start the post-Kyler Murray era. Ty Simpson is an inexperienced Quarterback who had an inconsistent year as the Alabama starter. Undersized and inexperienced is not often a good mix for a QB prospect, but Simpson has shown playmaking ability and a good, if not elite, arm. In 15 games he had a 28:5 TD-INT ratio, but his performances fell off toward the end of the year. I think you can look to division rivals San Francisco for a floor-to-ceiling comparison. Arizona will hope Simpson is Brock Purdy, but they might end up with Mac Jones. Another boom-or-bust prospect in the first round.

25. Chicago Bears – Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami

A player who’s 2025 tape is worthy of a top-20 selection, but questions surrounding previous injuries and being an older prospect see Mesidor fall a little, right into the laps of the Chicago Bears. The Canadian-born Mesidor had a fantastic end to his college career, posting 10.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss in 14 games. He arguably outshone his rushing mate Ruben Bain during the College Football Playoffs, and plays with a relentless motor you love on tape. The knocks come when you start to look at Mesidor being 25 as a rookie and having beaten up on younger, developing talent five years younger than he was. He has also suffered multiple foot injuries as well as knee and hamstring issues in the past. Ultimately, he is a high-effort, versatile defensive lineman who is stout against the run and able to get to the passer. The Bears need help bringing down the QB and Mesidor will certainly give them that.

26. Buffalo Bills – Christen Miller, DT, Georgia

Firstly, I think the Bills would LOVE to trade down here and recoup something close to the second-round pick they spent on D.J. Moore, but with Ty Simpson off the board, I’m not sure they get the opportunity to do so. The Bills desperately need to add talent in the front seven. The hire of Jim Leonhard as the new defensive coordinator means a shift to more 3-4 looks and the requirement for a bigger body on the defensive line. Christen Miller will certainly give them that. At 6’4, 321lbs, and still only 21 years old, Miller gives the Bills a plug-and-play run stuffer in the middle of their defensive line, with the potential to become more of a factor on passing downs as he matures. An early down run defender with good power, he would start straight away for Buffalo. Bills GM Brandon Beane tends to draft players the Bills have met with early in the draft. The Bills met with Miller at the NFL Scouting Combine and hosted him as a top-30 visit. Wide receivers such as Denzel Boston or KC Concepcion (if he’s still on the board) could be in play here as could UCF pass rusher Malachi Lawrence.

27. San Francisco 49ers – Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah

The second Utah offensive tackle to come off the board in the first round and the betting favourite to be the pick here. San Francisco have needs but they also have a 38-year-old Left Tackle in Trent Williams and a right tackle in Colton McKivitz who is a candidate to be cut after the 2027 season. Caleb Lomu is a prospect with experience at both left and right tackle. Still only 21 years old with great length and good feet. He gave up zero sacks in 2025 and Shanahan will love his ability to pull and get to the second level of the defense in the run game. Needs to cut out some inconsistencies with technique and better set himself against power rushers in order to reach his potential.

28. Houston Texans – Emmanuel Pregnon, IOL, Oregon

A big, strong, and powerful people mover in the run game, Pregnon is built like Blastoise. A four-year-starter primarily at left guard. Really good anchor with strong hands that hit like hammers on contact. The Texans need to improve across the line to better protect C.J. Stroud. Current left guard, Evan Brown is a below-average starter on an expiring deal whilst Jarrett Patterson and Kingston behind him are former sixth-round picks. Pregnon is a plug-and-play starter on the interior and improves their offensive line immediately.

29. Kansas City Chiefs – Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

The slide ends here. Possibly (probably?) the best cornerback in the draft is Tennessee’s Jermod McCoy. Due to injury he missed the entire 2025 season which is why he’s here at No. 29 and not off the board already at No. 9. Still only 20 years old with 2024 tape that rivals any player’s tape in the entire class. Possesses great speed with flexible hips who can mirror WRs with ease. Can be given a hard time by physical pass catchers, but if he’s healthy and can remain so, he could be the steal of the draft, especially for a Chiefs team that had its secondary decimated in the off-season.

30. Miami Dolphins – Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

Like a London bus, you wait all night for a Tennessee corner to come off the board and then you get them back-to-back! The “other” (although, he was the ONLY, in 2025) Tennessee cornerback is Colton Hood. Only just turned 21 and plays with the physicality you like from a defender. Arguably the best press-man cornerback in the draft, he should be a seamless fit for what Jeff Hafley wants to do in Miami. Coach Hafley wants his cornerbacks to win at all three levels and Hood can do that. Hood might not have the out-and-out burner deep speed to keep up with the fastest WRs in the NFL, but his 4.44 40-yard dash shows he is fast enough.

31. Las Vegas Raiders – Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

TRADE! (Las Vegas send New England picks 36 and 117 in return for pick 31). Omar Cooper Jr. (OCJ) shouldn’t be here at pick 31, and there’s a very good chance that he won’t be on Thursday night either, but he is here, and there’s no way the Raiders can resist a small jump up to secure Fernando Mendoza’s favourite weapon. OCJ is an inside/outside WR who is dynamic with the ball in his hands after the catch. He has sticky hands and makes ridiculous catches often. He could be exactly what the Raiders thought they were getting in Jack Bech last year. Fernando Mendoza with Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers, and OCJ. This could be the making of a special offense in Sin City.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars – Malachi Lawrence, EDGE, UCF

TRADE! (Jacksonville send Seattle picks 56, 88 and 100 in return for pick 32). We witnessed how aggressive Jaguars GM James Gladstone could be this time last year when he traded up to the second overall pick to select Travis Hunter. I think he could be aggressive again this year to try and get into the back end of the first round to try and bolster the pass rush in Duval. Seattle only have four selections in the draft this year, so they could very well be looking for the opportunity to move down. Malachi Lawrence is another player who has risen through the draft process, going from an early Day 3 player to a likely second rounder and now odds on to be taken in the first round. I think he profiles best as a 3-4 OLB. He has a multitude of pass rush moves along with great burst and heavy hands. At 253 lbs he isn’t the biggest pass rusher and can get washed out by bigger tackles in the run game. I love his motor and his athleticism. A 40″ vertical and a 130″ broad jump, which are 96th and 95th percentiles, respectively, show the power output he can produce. A pass rusher with great speed to power, plenty of pass rush moves and a non-stop motor should go in the first round, and I think he will.

 

Honourable Mentions

These are some players that I like and have some first-round buzz. I couldn’t find a spot for them here but don’t be surprised if you hear their name called on Thursday night.

  • Denzel Boston, WR, Washington – Big-bodied X receiver. Would be in play for New England if not for A.J. Brown. Miami and Buffalo like him too.
  • Chris Bell, WR, Louisville – Good route runner with size and explosion. Would be a first-round pick if not for the ACL tear.
  • Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame – Jeremiyah Love’s running mate at ND. Don’t be surprised if Seattle stick-and-pick him at 32.
  • Chase Bisontis, LG, Texas A&M – Similar to Emmanuel Pregnon. Could be the Texans pick at 28.
  • Keylan Rutledge, RG, Georgia Tech – Best RG in the class. Could sneak into the late first.
  • Brandon Cisse, CB, South Carolina – 20-year-old with good speed and coverage ability. Very good 2025 tape.
  • D’Angelo Ponds, CB, Indiana – Undersized for an outside cornerback but he’s a DAWG. Could be a surprise Seahawks stick-and-pick.
  • Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State – Day 1 starter on the outside who can play in man and zone heavy schemes. Would like to see more physicality.
  • Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson – Feisty for a slim, undersized corner. Brother plays for Atlanta Falcons.
  • Treydan Stukes, DB, Arizona State – Elite 2025 tape. Big nickel. Seems to have visited every NFL team. Played 2025 as a 24-year-old.
  • Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo – Versatile safety prospect. Peanut punch connoisseur. Bears and Vikings could really like him.
  • Caleb Banks, DT, Florida – Would be a locked and loaded first round pick without the multiple foot injury question mark. Chris Jones-esque.
  • Peter Woods, DT, Clemson – Didn’t come together in 2025. 2024 tape is good. Versatile. Can play multiple alignments within 4-3 and 3-4 defenses.
  • Zion Young, OLB, Missouri – Think he’s in play from Buccaneers downwards. Bears is a good fit for him. High effort player.
  • R Mason Thomas, OLB, Oklahoma – DPR. Super explosive. A team might fall in love. If Dallas stay put at 20 he could go that high.
  • Cashius Howell, OLB, Texas A&M – DPR. Zero percentile arm length. Most production came against lesser talent. Day 2 player for me.
  • CJ Allen, LB, Georgia – Firmly in play, just couldn’t find a spot for him here.
  • Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech – Great season at Tech. Might just be a big safety though. Day 2 player for me.

And that’s it! 32 first round picks, 4 trades and 50 total names to keep an ear out for on Thursday night!

Have your say and let me know your thoughts. You can find me on X @billynfluk